Intake and scoping
Define the decision, assumptions under examination, available evidence and boundaries of the work.
Independent judgment for acquisition decisions
Independent judgment on the assumptions behind your deal.
The person underwriting a deal is often the person most invested in believing it will work. Ordatum tests the commercial assumptions behind private-market acquisitions, before a deal closes and after it, for acquirers and the investors behind them.
Fixed-fee engagements · Explicit scope · No outcome-based compensation
The underwriting problem
A plausible thesis is not necessarily a durable one.
A thesis can appear persuasive while resting on assumptions nobody has stress-tested. Without an external reference point, those assumptions are difficult to judge; without stated falsification conditions, the thesis has no disciplined way to be proven wrong.
The Ordatum approach
Build the strongest case against the thesis before relying on the case for it.
Ordatum applies the same core method across every engagement, scaled to the question and scope. The objective is not to manufacture certainty. It is to produce a more independent, falsifiable and explicit view of the uncertainty already present.
Evidence gathering
Prioritize primary sources, identify conflicts and omissions, and state material gaps without unsupported inference.
Adversarial analysis
Construct the strongest evidence-based case against the client's current view.
Baseline and base-rate comparison
Compare the claim with a defensible external reference point where suitable evidence is available.
Explicit probability scoring
Express judgment as a probability with the basis and limitations of the estimate made explicit.
Falsification conditions
State what must be true for the assumption to hold and what evidence would prove the assessment wrong.
Three fixed-fee products
Choose the scope that matches the decision in front of you.
Each engagement is separately purchasable and agreed at a fixed fee before work begins. Fees do not depend on the deal's outcome or on the conclusion Ordatum reaches.
Assumption Audit
An independent stress-test of one specific, load-bearing assumption, either in a deal under consideration or in the plan of a business already acquired.
Typical questions include the durability of a key customer relationship, whether earnings hold once the owner's role is replaced at market cost, or the realism of a growth projection.
Included
- Structured written analysis
- The documented case against the assumption, not only the case for it
- Base-rate comparison where suitable evidence is available
- An explicit probability estimate
- Stated falsification conditions
Deliverable
A written memo of approximately 3–6 pages.
Not included
Financial modelling, review of the full deal or a recommendation on whether to proceed.
Discuss an Assumption AuditThesis Sensitivity Model
A quantitative model of the deal's exposure to the three or four variables that matter most to the investment case.
Variables commonly include loss of a key customer, customer churn, pricing and volume, alongside leverage and exit multiple.
Included
- A working spreadsheet model
- Downside and breakeven scenario analysis
- A short written interpretation of the model's implications
Deliverable
The working model file and written interpretation.
Not included
Qualitative judgment on any single assumption or a full-thesis narrative recommendation.
Discuss a Thesis Sensitivity ModelIndependent Thesis Stress-Test
A comprehensive, structured second opinion on the full investment thesis.
The engagement audits the thesis's key assumptions individually, models the deal's sensitivity to its primary variables and integrates both into a probability-weighted overall view.
May include up to three client-arranged calls with management or customers where scope requires it.
Included
- Assumption Audit treatment across the thesis's key claims
- A sensitivity model across the primary variables
- A synthesized report with a probability-weighted overall view
- A prioritized list of risks
Deliverable
A full written report and supporting model.
Not included
Legal, tax or accounting diligence, or any guarantee of outcome.
Discuss a Thesis Stress-TestTerms of judgment
Independence has to be structural, not asserted.
- Every engagement is priced as a fixed fee agreed before work begins, and compensation is independent of the deal's outcome and of Ordatum's conclusion.
- Ordatum does not provide investment, legal, tax or accounting advice; deliverables are inputs to the client's own decision, not a recommendation to proceed or decline.
- No outcome is guaranteed. The role is to make uncertainty explicit and evidence-based, not to eliminate it.
Founding engagements
A limited number of founding engagements.
Ordatum is opening a limited number of paid founding engagements for acquirers and investors, whether evaluating an acquisition or testing the plan of a business they already own.
Ordatum logs and dates every material judgment from the first engagement, then tracks it against the eventual outcome and the relevant historical base rate.
This record is being built now; it is not yet an established track record.
Each engagement begins with a defined question and scope. If the available evidence cannot support a defensible assessment within that scope, that limitation will be stated directly.
Current stage: Founding engagements open
Discuss an opportunityAbout Ordatum
Independent by design.
Evidence-led by method.
Ordatum Intelligence Inc. is a Vancouver-based private-market intelligence company incorporated in July 2026. It provides fixed-fee, independent analysis of the commercial assumptions behind acquisitions, for acquirers and the investors behind them, before and after a deal closes.
Founder
Kenan Davidson
Kenan Davidson is the founder of Ordatum Intelligence Inc. He holds a BSc in Applied Mathematics and Mathematics.
Before founding Ordatum, he spent several years producing financial and actuarial analysis for medico-legal litigation, including loss-of-earnings forecasts and expert reports relied on by attorneys, actuaries and medical experts.
He later helped lead the turnaround of an underperforming C$3M+ retail business, increasing comparable sales by approximately 20%.
Ordatum applies that same discipline to private-market acquisitions: explicit assumptions, evidence-based analysis, and conclusions bounded by what the record can support.
Discuss an opportunity
What decision or assumption would benefit from an independent test?
If you are evaluating an acquisition, or testing the plan of a business you already own, share enough context to identify the question and the appropriate scope.
Your initial enquiry is reviewed directly by Ordatum.